A Preview: the Contenders and Pretenders

Kick-off is tomorrow. I can't wait. You have until tomorrow to finish making your picks, if you're into fantasy, so I hope this will help, as well give the uninitiated a brief breakdown of the teams they'll probably be seeing most. First,

The Format: there are 8 groups of 4 teams each, designated A through H. In group play, each team plays every other team in their group, for a total of 3 games each. 3 points are given for a win, 1 for a draw, and none for a loss. At the end of group play, the top two teams in each group advance, with the group winners seeded to receive easier matchups. From there, a standard 16-team tournament bracket ensues. Now for the groups.

Today, I'll preview Groups A through D, the first four to begin play.

Group A: France, Mexico, South Africa, Uruguay
Picks: 1st-France, 2nd-Mexico
This group is interesting because of its competitiveness. It has the potential to be the most closely-contested group in the tournament. France, on paper, looks like the sure winner. Spearheaded by prolific Chelsea striker Nicolas Anelka, they also boast the attacking talents of Bayern Munich's Franck Ribery and Bordeaux's Yoann Gourcuff in midfield. These are only a few of the stars at France's disposal, but they barely (and controversially) qualified for the tournament, and the decision to replace coach Raymond Domenech after the World Cup comes a bit late. He is rumored to be widely distrusted by his players, and has gambled by revising France's formation very close to the tournament. France's recent friendly loss to 84th-ranked China does not bode well, and although they should win the group, Domenech's incompetence, combined with a defense that can be suspect, should prevent them from any serious progress. A potentially weak first-round opponent may get them a place in the last 8, but that is as a far as they likely go, and they could conceivably fall at any earlier stage.

France are by no means guaranteed to win the group. Mexico are a high-energy, high-skill team that outplayed England in a recent friendly, despite losing 3-1. Tactically interesting in their formation and off-the-ball movement, they have dark-horse potential. Slightly weaker is Uruguay, who also play an interesting formation and boast the high-scoring duo of Atletico Madrid's Diego Forlan and Ajax's Luis Suarez up front. Bringing up the rear is South Africa. Qualifying by virtue of their status as tournament hosts, they are the lowest-ranked team here, and it shows. But buoyed by their home support, they do have a chance to surprise that, if taken, could lead to any key players attracting interest from European clubs. France should win the group, followed by Mexico, but any slip-ups will be seized upon. There will be no easy games here.

Group B: Argentina, Greece, Nigeria, South Korea
Picks: 1st-Argentina, 2nd-Greece
Argentina are the big story in Group B. Coach Diego Maradona used 107 players during qualifying as he selected his team, but strangely, has had an extremely stable starting lineup. Arguably the greatest player in history, he is a hero to his nation and to his players. He is also an ex-drug addict with a terrible temper and a notoriously bad relationship with the media. He is crazy. His unstable, unpredictable nature could mean anything for Argentina's chances in South Africa. Barcelona's World Player of the Year, Lionel Messi, is the standout star in a team bursting with attacking talent and solid if unspectacular in midfield. The defense is suspect, despite fielding Inter Milan star Walter Samuel, and it has lately been rumored that Maradona could switch his formation to account for this. Potentially, he will field 3 defenders instead of 4, moving to a 3-4-3 that would allow him to field another of his excellent, skilled forwards. Argentina are a wild card in this tournament. There is no debate over their stupendous talent and capacity to entertain, but the simple fact is that nobody can really predict Diego Maradona's next move. Also, Messi has yet to transfer his godlike form at club level to the big stage, although he is at the peak of his powers this year and is widely touted to do so. Argentina should top a weak Group B, and their potential for greatness is matched only by their potential for self-destruction.

The rest of this group will almost certainly fight for second place, and the soccer on show is likely to be decidedly unspectacular in any of this group's games not featuring Argentina. Greece were shock winners of the 2004 European Championships, and although their defense is no longer the immovable object that it was, they are experienced, disciplined, and ably coached by Otto Rehhagel. Their qualities, though unimpressive, should see them advance from a weak group.

South Korea will probably never again reach the heights of 2002, when Dutch mastermind Guus Hiddink led them to the quarterfinals, but are always a tough matchup. Like Greece, they are organized and solid, and they are captained by sparkplug Manchester United midfielder and national hero Ji-Sung Park. Their spirited play could see them snatch second place in this group.

Nigeria has speed and athleticism in attack and defense, but the withdrawal of Chelsea's John Obi Mikel due to knee surgery leaves them decidedly weak in midfield. They are dangerous on the counter-attack as well as from corners and free-kicks, but should struggle to break down disciplined Greece and South Korea in open play.

Group C: England, United States, Algeria, Slovenia
Picks: 1st-England, 2nd- United States
England-United States is the opening game of this group, and is being highly anticipated as both teams go into the tournament with high expectations.

England have a new lease on life under taskmaster Fabio Capello, who has taken a team that failed to qualify for Euro 2008 and turned them into real contenders. Striker Wayne Rooney, but for injuries, might now be entering 'best in the world' discussions with the season he has had at Manchester United. Asked to shoulder the goalscoring responsibility of the departed stars Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez, he responded with aplomb, scoring 34 goals in 44 appearances despite missing parts of the season. He is indispensable to England, as adept at linking midfield to attack as he is at scoring goals. Should he fall to injury, England's lack of depth at striker will be exposed, and their largely world-class midfield has looked starved for ideas when Rooney has not played. The loss of captain and central defender Rio Ferdinand is a blow, but his injury-riddled season means he would not have been 100% anyway. The defense remains relatively solid at the back, and outside backs Ashley Cole and Glen Johnson are very dangerous when they push forward to support the attack. England should win this group as long as they avoid mistakes against the United States. But the Three Lions' real hopes rest with Rooney.  If he is healthy and scoring, they have a real chance to lift their first World Cup since 1966.

Despite a disastrous performance at the 2006 World Cup, where they crashed out in the group stage, the expectations placed on the United States have never been higher. The team continues to steadily improve, gradually adding skill, passing, and flair to defensive solidity, athleticism, set-piece skill and work ethic (qualities they have always possessed in abundance). The recent emergence of Jose Torres has added a degree of class to an otherwise blue-collar midfield, and he has the potential to shine in South Africa. But it is Landon Donovan who is the star man here. Fresh from an impressive loan spell at Everton, the versatile attacker will need to be at his best for the US to excel. He is ably supported by the trickery of Fulham cult hero Clint Dempsey and the athleticism of striker Jozy Altidore, who will shake off injury to start the opener. Strangely, the defense may be the weak point here, as a clear lack of depth is compounded by the fact that star central defender Oguchi Onyewu of AC Milan is struggling for full fitness. Symptomatic of the defensive problems is coach Bob Bradley's preference for playing captain Carlos Bocanegra out of position at left back, where he has been tidy but unspectacular. If the defense stays healthy and the attack fires, the US are a danger to anyone. Fans will consider anything but advancement from the group to be a failure.

Algeria and Slovenia, like any teams here, have the class and quality to cause problems. Algeria boasts quality players in Karim Ziani, Nadir Belhadj, and Madjid Bougherra, but remains too unpredictable and weak in depth to do anything but cause a scare.

Slovenia is a virtual unknown, and lacks any real star power, but have a fortunate schedule that lets them warm up against Algeria before facing the USA and England. They are uncomplicated and hardworking, but their schedule and group opponents give them a chance. They must beat Algeria, but if they can force a draw with the similarly-set-up US, they have a real shot at advancement.

Group D: Germany, Serbia, Ghana, Australia
Picks: 1st-Germany, 2nd-Serbia
This group had the potential to be the most competitive of any group, but the injury to Chelsea star Michael Essien leaves it more cut-and-dry, and has probably ruined Ghana's chances. A one-man destructive force in midfield, Essien is as good at stopping opposing attacks as he is initiating offense and scoring goals at the other end. Ghana have significant depth at Essien's position, but none can really fill his shoes. Although they are cohesive and disciplined, strong defense probably won't be enough to see them out of this tough group.

Australia is another unspectacular team that overachieved in 2006 under Guus Hiddink, the same man who took South Korea to the quarters in 2002. Hiddink is gone, and Australia have become notably more pragmatic and defensive under Pim Verbeek, Hiddink's former assistant. Everton's Tim Cahill is the most talented attacker, and will have to perform at his peak for Australia to have any hope. They get the edge over Ghana because of their relative strength in attack, but like their African group opponents, they will struggle to advance.

Germany are a fixture on the World Cup schedule, legendarily disciplined, and carry a well-earned reputation as a 'tournament team'. Well-drilled by coach Joachim Low, their ever-present efficiency and solidity is this year supplemented by a heavy dose of skill and flair. Striker Miroslav Klose has the chance to become the World Cup's all-time leading scorer, and he is supported by a deep and talented cadre of attacking midfielders, including striker/winger Lukas Podolski and Turkish-descended playmaker Mesut Ozil. The loss of captain Michael Ballack to ankle injury (ironically the result of a tackle from a Ghanaian, Kevin-Prince Boateng) is a psychological blow. Although getting on in years, the midfielder is a great leader who combines vast big-game experience with prodigious technical skill. Instead, the two central midfield slots will be filled by Bastian Schweinsteiger and Sami Khedira. Both young players, it is the more experienced Schweinsteiger who must raise his game to replace Ballack. The defense is martialed by the 6'6" titan Per Mertesacker, a clubmate of Ozil's at Werder Bremen, and Philipp Lahm, who will captain in Ballack's absence, is one of the world's finest attacking full-backs. Germany can never be written off, and this year is no different. They should win the group, and further progress is both expected and probable.

Serbia qualifies for its first-ever world cup as an independent nation, and brings a strong team to South Africa. The defense is absolutely solid, with Manchester United's Nemanja Vidic and Chelsea's Branislav Ivanovic forming one of the best central defenses in the tournament. Dejan Stankovic will run things in midfield, and his class should help make up for the weakness of his potential midfield partners. Serbia's wingers are very good, with Milos Krasic rumored to be moving to a major club soon. However, they lack firepower up front, and Krasic's counterpart on the opposite wing, Milan Jovanovic, was the team's leading scorer in qualifying. Striker Nikola Zigic can be anonymous at times (startling given the fact that he stands 6'8") and partner Marko Pantelic has provided more assists than goals. Nonetheless, Serbia won their group in qualifying, and will be a very dangerous team if they can add goals to almost-certain defensive solidity.


Tomorrow, Groups E through H!